Kajian Kelayakan Proyek Pembangunan Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Air di Kumbih Aceh
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.38035/jim.v4i5.1561Keywords:
PLTA, Kelayakan Finansial, Analisis Sensitivitas, EBT dan Mitigasi RisikoAbstract
Penelitian ini mengevaluasi kelayakan teknis dan finansial pembangunan Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Air (PLTA) Kumbih-3 berkapasitas 45 MW di Aceh dengan pendekatan mixed-methods yang menggabungkan analisis kuantitatif dan kualitatif. Analisis teknis didasarkan pada data debit historis yaitu 31,5 m³/s, rentang 11,62–34,77 m³/s dan curah hujan tahunan (2.765–2.931 mm), yang menghasilkan kapasitas optimal serta faktor kapasitas 62,47%. Kajian finansial dilakukan melalui enam skenario, yaitu low, moderate, high, debit historis 1, debit historis 2. Hasil perhitungan menunjukkan bahwa pada skenario moderate, proyek layak dengan NPV Rp 251.352 juta, BCR 1,14, IRR 11,15%, dan payback period 23 tahun. Namun, skenario low (penurunan kapasitas 20%) menghasilkan NPV negatif sebesar -Rp 437.659 juta, sementara skenario high (peningkatan kapasitas 20%) menghasilkan NPV positif Rp 940.363 juta. Analisis debit historis memberikan gambaran tambahan atas ketidakpastian aliran air, dengan hasil pada skenario debit historis 2 menunjukkan hasil yang layak dengan NPV Rp 457.175 juta, BCR 1,26, IRR 12,04%, dan payback period 19 tahun. Validasi pakar menekankan kebutuhan pembangunan kolam tando (pondage) dan penerapan kontrak fixed-price untuk mitigasi risiko teknis dan keuangan. Secara keseluruhan, proyek ini dinilai layak, strategis dalam mengurangi proyeksi defisit listrik Aceh sebesar 189 MW pada tahun 2030, serta berkontribusi terhadap pencapaian target transisi energi terbarukan nasional.
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